Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, tweeted on Friday a warning to Democrats: polls could be wrong and President Trump could win again.
To Trump supporters, the revelation may not be surprising. There was even a supporter for Joe Biden who lives in Pennsylvania who said at a CNN town hall that when she looks out her front window, there’s a “sea of Trump flags” in her neighborhood. Trump likes to refer to these voters as the silent majority.
Polls seem to be backing up their claims.
“Can’t believe it took until Sept. 18 for someone to realize that the polls could be wrong again and Trump could win,” Silver tweeted. “Quite the canny observation. Completely undercuts both the mainstream media narrative and the Poll Guys, both of whom [checks notes] bring this up constantly.”
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Silver was referring to a tweet from Nathan J. Robinson, an editor at Current Affairs magazine, who pointed out a recent analys by the New York Times that said if current polls are as “wrong as they were in 2016, Trump will win.”
“This means we should actually assume Biden is losing, not winning,” Robinson said. “The lead is a mirage based on assuming that the exact same thing we’ve already seen can happen will not happen.”
Silver pointed out that, of course, any polling error could favor Biden but he said he is fine “with almost every Trump Still Has A Chance take.” He said he does not want his thought process to be considered to be some kind of a bold take because “it may be one of the most conventional opinions of all time.”
Mercedes Schlapp, a Trump campaign senior adviser, told the “Todd Starnes Show” this week that she has been campaigning for the president in major cities in key states and has seen robust support for Trump. The Trump campaign believes that the president could make major inroads to the Latino community.
“What you see out in these states is huge enthusiasm,” she said. “Whether it be women, Latinos, black…it’s amazing the fact that they want to stand up for this president…they know what’s at stake during this election.”
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist conducted a recent poll that showed Biden leading Trump by nine points among likely voters. The polling showed that Biden is enjoying more support from white voters than Democrats in the past.
Sean Trende, a veteran political analyst with RealClearPolitics, said earlier that Biden has some hurdles he must overcome. He is not as popular among Latinos as Hillary Clinton and a lot weighs on whether or not the black vote comes out to the polls, according to New York magazine.